Why are BJP supporters subdued despite NDA‘s third consecutive win?
Well, this feeling of despondency has a lot to do with BJP’s stupendous performance in the last two elections and the resultant expectations the supporters had from the party. In 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won simple majority on its own winning 288 and 303 seats respectively. Its dependence on allies in the last ten years was a mere formality. But that has now changed. The BJP is now dependent on its allies to form NDA 3.0 and will now have to take them along in the process of decision making.
It all started with Prime Minister’s ambitious poll pitch of “abki baar 400 paar” which set the bar very high for the BJP. The idea perhaps was to mobilise BJP voters and party cadres for another big performance. All along the campaign, the BJP leaders reinforced the theme of “400-paar” raising the expectations of party’s supporters. Then came the exit polls. Almost all the pollsters predicted a massive BJP win and at least three of them claimed that PM Modi‘s 400-paar pitch would turn into a reality on June 4 when the votes are counted. This rising crescendo led to very high expectations from the saffron party – which was shattered to some extent by the results today.
Lok Sabha Elections
Assembly Elections
However, PM Modi in his victory speech tried to boost the morale of workers and supporters by calling today’s victory a historic feat. He mocked the INDIA bloc for failing to come even close to the BJP numbers despite all of them uniting together.
And while the BJP gears up for NDA 3.0, it is a reality that the saffron party will have to depend on new allies TDP and JD(U) to form and sustain the new government.
Gains for BJP: It will lead third NDA government
Gains for NDA allies: They will have more say in governance
But why is the opposition celebrating?
Now, coming to the opposition camp. The INDIA bloc score is at 232. This is 40 less than the half-way mark of 272. But the spirit in the opposition camp is high. The opposition alliance was almost written off by many, thanks to the many contradictions within. The bickerings and ideological differences between disparate parties that surfaced from time to time added to the negative perception of the alliance. To sum it up, INDIA bloc was seen as an opportunistic alliance which had come together just for power.
The exit poll results added to the feeling of failure with only one pollster giving the opposition alliance an outside chance of 200 seats. All others had predicted only around 150 seats for the alliance. The INDIA bloc leaders had rejected the exit polls and had exuded confidence of a good show. But, given the past track record, there were no takers for their claims. So, when the results trickled in today, there was a lot to cheer in the opposition camp. For once their performance had improved. The Congress made surprising gains almost doubling its tally from 2019. The Samajwadi Party emerged as the biggest winner handing over a shock defeat to the BJP in its bastion of Uttar Pradesh. Mamata Banerjee surprised the BJP regaining the ground she had lost in 2019. Clearly, there were several positives for the opposition to feel upbeat. And that explains why they were feeling upbeat even in their defeat.
Gains for Congress: After 10 years of isolation, it has finally scripted a revival and will have a respectable position in opposition ranks
Gains for INDIA parties: Regional parties will have a greater say in Parliament after defeating BJP in its bastions