Exit polls signal triumph for BJP with its strongholds secure & predictions of big gains in south


ThePrint looked at five exit polls — India Today-MyAxis, News 24-Today’s Chanakya, India TV-CNX, ABP-CVoter and Times Now-ETG — all indicating that the NDA is likely to secure over 350 seats, with three of them even suggesting over 400 seats.

Among these, News 24-Today’s Chanakya projected 400 seats for the NDA, 107 seats for the INDIA bloc, and 33 for other parties. India TV-CNX’s forecast ranged from 371-401 seats for the NDA, 109-139 seats for the INDIA bloc, and 28-38 seats for others. Similarly, India Today-My Axis exit polls predicted a range of 361-401 seats for the NDA, 131-166 for the India Alliance, and 8-20 for others.

ABP-CVoter forecast 353-383 seats for the NDA, 152-182 for the INDIA bloc, and 4-12 for others. Times Now-ETG’s projections allocated 358 seats to the NDA, 152 seats to INDIA, and 33 to others.

The BJP had won 303 seats in 2019.

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BJP hold over North continues

Almost all five exit polls are predicting a BJP sway in UP. But the party may lose some seats in Bihar and Rajasthan.

For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, all five predict a landslide victory for the NDA, with the BJP expected to secure over 60 seats. The party won 62 of the state’s 80 seats in 2019. In fact, all five pollsters are predicting that the BJP will improve its 2019 tally this time around.

According to News24-Today’s Chanakya, the BJP will win 68 of the state’s 80 seats and Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance 12 seats, while India TV-CNX predicted 62-68 seats for the BJP, and 10-16 seats for the SP. Times Now-ETG showed the BJP as winning 69 seats, and the SP 11.

Similarly in Bihar, pollsters are predicting a BJP lead, though their numbers will reduce compared to 2019. According to the India Today-MyAxis survey, the BJP is projected to win 13-15 seats and its ally Janata Dal (United) is likely to get 9-11 seats. Bihar has a total of 40 seats. In 2019, the NDA won 39 seats while the Congress won just one seat.

The Opposition alliance, though, is likely to improve its position compared to 2019.

As per India Today-MyAxis survey, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is likely to get 6-7 seats while the Congress is likely to win just 1-2 seats.

BJP likely to improve in south 

Exit polls have predicted that the BJP will make up for the seats it loses in the north by the gains it is likely to make in the south.

Most of them see the BJP making big inroads in the south, potentially opening its account in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

In Kerala, News24-Today’s Chanakya projects 15 seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), 1 for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), and 4 seats for the BJP.

In Tamil Nadu, Times Now-ETG is predicting 34-35 of the state’s 39 seats going to the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), 2-3 seats to the BJP, and 2 seats to the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). News24-Today’s Chanakya gives 29 seats to the DMK and 10 seats to BJP.

Even in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the BJP is expected to improve its performance, compared to 2019.

While some exit polls are predicting a sweep for the BJP and the alliance of N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, others like Times Now-ETG predict 14 of Andhra Pradesh’s 25 seats will go to Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) and 11 to the BJP.

Karnataka, too, will see the BJP taking a big lead. Of the five, News24-Today’s Chanakya is the most optimistic, predicting a win for the BJP in 24 of 28 seats, and for Congress in 4. India Today-MyAxis gave the BJP 23-25 seats, and the Congress 3-5.

If the exit poll predictions come true, it will be quite a loss of face for the Congress, which won the assembly elections in the state in 2023 and formed the government with Siddaramaiah as chief minister.

Tight contest in Maharashtra  

Most of the exit polls have predicted a tight contest between the BJP-led NDA and INDIA bloc in Maharashtra. While ABP-CVoter survey is predicting a win on 22-26 out of the total 48 seats for the NDA, for INDIA, it forecasts 23-25 seats.

India Today-MyAxis has predicted 28-32 seats for NDA and 16-20 for the INDIA bloc while News 24-Today’s Chanakya has predicted 33 seats for NDA and 15 for INDIA.

Also read: Eye on Delhi polls & MPs’ failure to take on Kejriwal prompted BJP high command to replace 5 of them

West Bengal & Odisha to see BJP improving its numbers

In the two eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha — where the BJP is looking to increase its tally from 2019 — most exit polls foresee significant gains for the party.

In Bengal, ABP-CVoter predicted the BJP winning 23-27 of the 42 seats, with the ruling Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee securing 13-17 seats. It shows the Congress-CPI(M) as likely to get 1-3 seats.

The state had witnessed a very aggressive campaigning with charges and countercharges between Trinamool and BJP flying thick and fast. The BJP, which has made massive inroads in the state, winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, is looking to improve its tally further. Earlier this week, Modi also held his first road show in Kolkata.

In Odisha, too, the exit polls are predicting big gains for the BJP. News 24-Today’s Chanakya gave the party 16 out of the state’s 21 seats — up from 8 in 2019 — and just 4 for Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD). Odisha had simultaneous Lok Sabha and assembly elections and most of the exit polls gave a clean sweep to the BJD in the assembly elections.

Kejriwal being in jail unlikely to help AAP

In Delhi, a majority of the exit polls are predicting a sweep for the BJP. India Today-MyAxis exit polls gave the BJP 6-7 of the total 7 seats and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)-Congress alliance just one seat.

Going by the exit polls predictions, AAP chief and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s ‘jail ke badle vote’ pitch did not seem to have cut much ice with Delhi voters. The alliance with Congress also may not have worked like the parties expected.

Times Now-ETG, too, predicted all 7 seats going to the BJP while the AAP-Congress alliance drew a blank.

INDIA bloc to gain in J&K

All pollsters, though, have predicted a good lead for the INDIA bloc in Jammu and Kashmir, which saw the first general elections since the abrogation of Article 370 on 5 August, 2019.

India Today-MyAxis survey has predicted 3 of the 6 seats in J&K going to the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and 2 seats to the BJP. Of the 6 seats, one is in Ladakh. Congress is likely to win the Ladakh seat.

Times Now-ETG Research has given 2 seats to the BJP, 2-3 seats to the INDIA bloc and one seat to others. India TV-CNX has predicted 2-3 seats being won by the BJP.

(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)

Also read: INDIA bloc puts up show of strength at Delhi rally, reminds BJP of ‘values of Lord Rama’


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