MUMBAI: Cash, Caste, Crop, and perhaps Community. That pretty much defines the main factors at play as Maharashtra heads into an election on Wednesday.
This is the first assembly poll since the dramatic split of Shiv Sena and NCP, which led to major political realignments and comes barely six months after the Lok Sabha results in which the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi came out on top. Wresting 30 of the state’s 48 seats, it left the governing Mahayuti reeling with a tally of 17, even though the difference in vote-share of the two fronts was less than 1%. In terms of leads, Mahayuti was ahead in 125 segments while the MVA was leading in 153.
However, the Haryana verdict has given BJP and allies an impetus in the form of an unprecedented third term. They have since worked overtime to counter anti-incumbency in one of India’s largest states. This includes carpet-bombing the electorate with sops, such as a monthly income support scheme, Mukhya Mantri Ladki Bahin Yojana, which is patterned on the Madhya Pradesh model. Five installments of Rs 1,500 have reached over 2.3 crore women.
Its popularity is evident from the manifestos released by both fronts – they are offering even more sops for women. While Mahayuti has offered Rs 2,100 per month if it is voted back, MVA has offered a monthly stipend of Rs 3,000 under Mahalakshmi scheme.
But will this counter public discontent over other issues? Low procurement prices for soyabean and cotton farmers can be a decisive factor in Vidarbha and Marathwada. During the Lok Sabha polls, Mahayuti faced a backlash in these regions. Inflation and unemployment also continue to simmer. Indeed, the opposition argues that rising prices counter the gains from the Ladki Bahin stipend.
The opposition has also invoked Marathi asmita or pride by focusing on Adani group’s presence in the Dharavi Redevelopment Project and the flight of industry and jobs from Maharashtra to Gujarat. Ajit Pawar’s revelation that industrialist Gautam Adani had attended a meeting at his residence to discuss the possibility of a BJP-NCP govt in 2019 led to opposition allegations that the industrialist was involved in toppling the MVA govt.
The Mahayuti campaign has also adopted a majoritarian theme by dropping terms such as “vote jihad” and “dharma yuddh” to counter the consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of MVA candidates. The BJP manifesto calls for an anti-conversion law. Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath’s slogan “batenge to katenge” gained usage as divisive propaganda for the BJP poll machine. PM Narendra Modi’s slogan, “ek hain toh safe hain”, was seen as an effort to moderate the tone.
“In the Lok Sabha polls, the opposition set the narrative with its anti-Modi campaign and the threat of the Constitution being changed and the Mahayuti parties had to respond to it. In the state polls, the ruling parties seem to have set the narrative with the Ladki Bahin Yojana and the ‘batenge to katenge’ slogan and the opposition has had to respond to it,” said senior journalist Abhay Deshpande.
How crucial will caste be to the assembly poll results? In the LS polls, the agitation for Maratha quota led by activist Manoj Jarange led to defeat of BJP stalwarts including Raosaheb Danve and Pankaja Munde. Though he threatened to field candidates again this time, Jarange decided to stall. The issue may simmer and provoke a reaction from the OBC community. But BJP has increased outreach to OBCs, which are its core base.
The splitting of the two major regional parties – Shiv Sena and NCP – continues to cast its shadow over the state. Indeed, the unlikely post-poll alliances and changes in govt have led voters to question the value of their vote.
Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) are pitted in direct contests on 51 seats. A similar war will rage between NCP (Sharad Pawar group) and Ajit Pawar’s NCP in 36 seats. It’s unclear if the parent party in both cases will gain public sympathy. The party that loses out could face an exodus or political oblivion.
Rebel candidates could queer the pitch for both fronts. And small parties and Independents, too, will play a key role in close contests. The smaller parties include Maharashtra Navnirman Sena of Raj Thackeray, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar, the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh led by Mahadev Jankar, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi led by Hitendra Thakur.
Whichever alliance wins will have to face the challenge of managing the state’s precarious financial condition. Debt is upward of Rs 7.8 lakh crore. Fiscal deficit is expected to be Rs 2 lakh crore, much beyond norm. And dropping schemes after winning the poll will not be an easy task.