In 2019, the Raghubar Das-led BJP government was toppled amid a tribal backlash. The Hemant Soren-led JMM consolidated the tribal votes in that election on the promise of implementing the 1932 Khatiyan Bill, which holds 1932 identity and land records as state domicile criteria, and Sarna, a separate religious code for tribals.
With its promises striking a chord in the tribal belt in 2019, the JMM secured 19 ST seats. The Congress won six, taking the combine’s tally to 25. The BJP’s tally, on the other hand, plunged from 11 ST seats in 2014 to just two. Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), which in 2020 merged with the BJP, won one seat in that election.
Earlier in 2014, the BJP came to power by scoring big in the tribal belt. It won 11 ST seats while the JMM secured 13 ST seats and the All Jharkhand Students Union, which joined hands with the BJP before this election, got two.
In this year’s Lok Sabha election, Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s arrest just ahead of the polls created a sympathy wave for the JMM, with the BJP losing all five ST-reserved LS seats. The JMM-led alliance won all five seats—the JMM three and the Congress two. In the assembly segment break-up, the JMM led in 10 segments, the Congress in 13, and the BJP in just five.
The results on Saturday turned out to be worse than predicted by the LS polls.
In the election campaign, the BJP was in overdrive to exploit the fault lines in the tribal belt. To create the Hindi-belt sort of polarisation among tribals, BJP leaders alleged “infiltration” by Bangladeshi Muslims into the tribal belt. BJP leaders, from election in-charge Shivraj Singh Chouhan to state president Babulal Marandi, promised to implement the National Register of Citizens to deport the “infiltrators” if voted to power. Even Home Minister Amit Shah indicated a shift in the BJP’s policy by promising the Sarna religious code for tribals amid the party’s insistence on a Uniform Civil Code across the country.
None of that seems to have worked.
Jharkhand BJP has traditionally been strong in the North Chotanagpur and Palamu belt, where migrants from Bihar have settled. Across the belt, there is only one ST seat in Palamu. In the past, the SC vote bank helped the BJP get a reasonable number of seats in the state. However, without the Kolhan and Santhal Parganas, which house 60 percent of the ST-reserved seats, the BJP lost Jharkhand in 2019.
The JMM stronghold is Kolhan and Santhal Parganas. In 2019, the BJP could not bag a single of the 14 assembly seats in Kolhan while the JMM-Congress marked a decisive victory in the Santhal Parganas by winning 13 of the 18 assembly seats, with the BJP managing to win five.
Seven of the 18 assembly seats in the Santhal Parganas, including the Deoghar, Dumka, Godda, Jamtara, Pakur and Sahibganj districts, are ST-reserved. Hemant Soren, Babulal Marandi and BJP’s Nishikant Dubey come from this region.
Nine of the 14 assembly seats in Kolhan are ST-reserved. Four state chief ministers, Arjun Munda, Raghubar Das, Madhu Koda and Champai Soren, hail from this region.
South Chotanagpur has 11 other ST seats.
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BJP’s 2024 bid for Jharkhand tribal belt
The BJP banked on two different strategies for a comeback in the tribal belt.
It tried to make a dent in the JMM’s Kolhan stronghold with a prize catch—veteran JMM torch-bearer and Shibu Soren’s trusted man Champai Soren, regarded as the ‘Tiger of Kolhan’. Soren, who won the Seraikella seat, brought the one win that the BJP has registered this election. However, the BJP had been relying on him to do much more.
After his short stint as CM when Hemant Soren was in jail, Champai Soren joined the BJP, saying the JMM had disrespected him. He contested the Seraikella seat, which he has won for the JMM six times, on a BJP ticket. Given his influence in Kolhan, the BJP also fielded his son, Babulal Soren, from the Ghatsila seat and his protege, Sonaram Bodra, from Kharsawan. However, Babulal Soren lost to JMM’s Ram Das Soren while Bodra lost to JMM’s Dashrath Gagrai.
In 2019, not only did the BJP not win any seat in Kolhan but also then-CM Raghuvar Das lost from the region. So, the BJP did not leave any stone unturned to ensure a turnaround this time. The party fielded former CM Arjun Munda’s wife, Meera Munda, from Potka, but she lost to JMM’s Sanjib Sardar. It also fielded former CM Madhu Kora’s wife, Geeta Kora, from Jagannathpur, but she lost to Congress’s Sona Ram Sinku.
BJP leader Sudarshan Bhagat, former Union minister of tribal affairs, lost to JMM’s Bhushan Tirkey in the Gumla assembly constituency. BJP ST Morcha national president Samir Oraon lost to JMM’s Chamra Linda in the Bishnupur assembly constituency.
To expand its footprint in the Santhal Parganas, which adjoins West Bengal and has a significant Muslim population, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma and Nishikant Dubey first raised the “infiltration” issue in the Parliament based on a Union home ministry-filed affidavit in the Jharkhand high court in September. Since then, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP leaders have kept their focus on “infiltration” in the election campaign in the Santhal Parganas.
The tribal population in Jharkhand, the MHA affidavit says, declined from 44.67 percent in 1951 to 28.11 percent in 2011, but the state government has denied such claims.
Speaking to ThePrint before the election results, a Jharkhand BJP leader said that the BJP lost the tribal belt in 2019 because of the Raghuvar Das government’s 1985 domicile policy that diluted land policy, keeping the focus on OBCs.
“On realising its mistake, the party sent Raghuvar Das to the Raj Bhavan, inducted Babulal Marandi into the BJP in 2020, made Droupadi Murmu President, made two tribal community leaders CMs of Chhattisgarh and Odisha, made Marandi BJP Jharkhand president, inducted Arjun Munda into Modi’s Cabinet, PM visited Bisra Munda’s birthplace in 2023, and the Centre announced Janjatiya Gaurav Divas to bring back lost tribals,” the leader said on the condition of anonymity.
“BJP used ‘love jihad’ and ‘infiltration’ issues to gain lost ground in the tribal belt, and we focused on ‘roti, mati, aur beti‘ campaign to make tribals aware of growing dangers from outsiders. JMM introduced the ‘maiya‘ scheme for women. Aware of its impact, we too announced a cash scheme for women. We also promised to look into the Sarna code for tribals to bring them into the party fold,” he said.
The JMM, in its election campaign, hit back at the BJP for creating Hindu-Muslim polarisation. However, it seems the campaign of polarisation has failed.
The JMM-led alliance is winning all seven ST seats in Santhal Parganas, eight of the nine ST seats in Kolhan, all 11 in South Chotanagpur, and the one ST seat in Palamu.
ST seats in Maharashtra
The BJP’s performance in the tribal belt of Maharashtra has improved, helping the Mahayuti come back to power in Maharashtra despite a setback in the tribal-dominated seats in the Lok Sabha election.
The BJP is set to win 10 of the 25 ST seats, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena six seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP six seats, taking the Mahayuti’s tally to 22. Meanwhile, the Congress is leading in two seats, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in another.
In Maharashtra, Scheduled Tribes, which account for 10 percent of the population, are spread across 21 districts, with 25 seats of 288 assembly seats reserved for the community.
In the 2019 state assembly polls, the BJP’s tally came down to eight seats from 11 in 2014. The undivided Shiv Sena won three seats, the undivided NCP six, and the Congress four. Smaller parties won the remaining four seats. Earlier, in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won all four ST seats, with the BJP winning three and Sena one.
However, after a political realignment following the split in the NCP and Shiv Sena, the BJP, as part of the Mahayuti, could secure only one tribal seat in the 2024 LS polls. The MVA won three ST seats, with the Congress winning two and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) one. The assembly segment break-down showed a BJP lead in nine ST seats while the Congress lead was in nine seats, Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray) in four, NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) in two, and Independent in one.
The results of this assembly election, however, shows that the Mahayuti has since gained ground in the tribal belt.
In North Maharashtra, which has a high density of tribals, the BJP lost its advantage during the Lok Sabha polls due to Dalit and tribal polarisation in favour of the MVA, according to a survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The survey says that nearly 55 percent of tribals backed MVA in Maharashtra—more than the 46 percent of Dalits who backed MVA. On the other hand, 35 percent of tribals and 35 percent of Dalits supported Mahayuti. However, according to a pre-assembly poll CSDS survey, Mahayuti could increase its lead by 10 percentage points in the tribal belt since the LS polls.
A Maharashtra BJP leader said, “Mahayuti learnt from its Lok Sabha mistake when it was over-confident. The Mahayuti performance among Maratha voters was good in the LS polls. However, cross-polarisation among OBCs helped the MVA, and BJP’s micro-management in the tribal belt had a negative impact. Since then, we have restored the confidence of tribals in the party. The women’s cash scheme became a game-changer among tribal and Dalit women.”
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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