Battle of wits: On the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections 

Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in November will, yet again, test the mettle of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, and the respective regional parties, just weeks after the elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. By-elections in three Lok Sabha constituencies and 48 Assembly segments across States have also been announced. The political landscape in Maharashtra has been reshaped thoroughly since the 2019 election. The Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have split, with one faction each in alliance with the BJP and the Congress. The ruling Mahayuti, which the BJP is a part of, ended up with 17 of 48 seats in the 2024 general election, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi, of the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Sena and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, won 29. Since then, the ruling alliance has taken several measures to gain more ground. Following the latest decision by the outgoing Eknath Shinde-led government hours before the election schedule was announced, a complete toll waiver for light motor vehicles was announced. Chastened by the Haryana election results, the Congress has toned down its hype in Maharashtra. It has appointed senior leaders to oversee the campaign in various regions of the State. In Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the BJP has had its strategy in place well in time, overseen by veterans who command authority.

The JMM-led ruling alliance in Jharkhand, which the Congress is a part of, and the Mahayuti are betting on women voters to ensure another term. Both governments have introduced cash dole schemes for women. In Jharkhand, the BJP campaign is built on corruption allegations against State Chief Minister Hemant Soren as well as demographic shifts which the party attributes to the alleged entry of people from Bangladesh. Mr. Soren accuses the BJP of misusing central investigating agencies to implicate him. He is dependent on tribal consolidation, but that alone is not sufficient. Nearly three-fourths of the State’s population are non-tribal, and the BJP’s focus is on consolidating the Hindus among them. The tribal population is shrinking, but linking this to Bangladesh while overlooking the issue of inter-State migration is a classic BJP playbook tactic. The consolidation of the Other Backward Classes, a strategy that worked in its favour in Haryana, is what the BJP is aiming for in Jharkhand and Maharashtra. The Congress and its regional allies are at risk of being overdependent on Marathas in Maharashtra and tribespeople in Jharkhand.