India will advance to the semifinals if they beat Zimbabwe on Sunday; Pakistan have to beat Bangladesh, and require at least one of India or South Africa to lose.Pakistan’s 33-run win over South Africa on Thursday in Sydney has kept the Super 12 Group 2 semi-final qualification scenarios interesting going into the final round of T20 World Cup group matches on Sunday.
With no rain forecast for the Adelaide double-header – between Netherlands-South Africa and Bangladesh-Pakistan – and only a slim chance of showers leading into India-Zimbabwe in Melbourne, the probability of a washout across the three games is miniscule. Here is a look at what each of the contenders requires to make the knockouts:
India (6 points, NRR +0.730)
India have the advantage of playing the last game of the group stage. They will be through if they beat Zimbabwe. However, a loss to Zimbabwe will mean South Africa should have lost to Netherlands or Bangladesh should have beaten Pakistan, with a margin not big enough to take their net run-rate above India’s. However, a loss to Zimbabwe after South Africa and Pakistan victories will see India knocked out, as Pakistan’s NRR is already better than India’s.
South Africa (5 points, NRR +1.441)
A win over Netherlands will see South Africa through, and a loss will dump them out of the tournament.
Pakistan (4 points, NRR +1.117)
Pakistan have to beat Bangladesh, and require at least one of India or South Africa to lose.
Bangladesh (4 points, NRR -1.276)
Bangladesh will want South Africa to lose, because then a win by any margin over Pakistan will put them into the semis. If South Africa win, Bangladesh will need to beat Pakistan by a margin big enough to push their abysmal NRR above India’s, assuming Zimbabwe win. The required combined margin of India’s loss and Bangladesh’s win is said to be in the region of 150 runs.
Zimbabwe (3 points, NRR -0.313)
South Africa have to lose heavily to Netherlands, Bangladesh-Pakistan has to be washed out (but Adelaide weather forecast for Sunday is clear), and Zimbabwe have to hammer India. This will force a four-way tie on five points for second place, with South Africa, Zimbabwe, Pakistan and Bangladesh on two wins each, bringing NRR into the equation. But Zimbabwe’s NRR might not be enough even after all these miracles. So Zimbabwe are more or less out.
Netherlands (2 points, NRR -1.233)
Netherlands have already been eliminated.