TMC edge in Bengal, BJP win in Assam, LDF sweep in Kerala — what exit polls say

Women stand in a queue to cast their vote at a polling station during the 5th phase of State Assembly elections at Santipur, in Nadia | PTI
Women stand in a queue to cast their vote at a polling station during the 5th phase of West Bengal Assembly elections at Santipur, in Nadia | PTI

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New Delhi: The Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-Congress in Tamil Nadu and All India NR Congress-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Puducherry — these are the predicted winners in the assembly elections, according to exit polls’ predictions Thursday.

According to the NDTV poll of exit polls, it will be a close fight between the TMC and BJP in West Bengal, but DMK and LDF are predicted to be sweeping Tamil Nadu and Kerala, respectively.

In Assam, the BJP is staring at a second straight term, according to predictions. Meanwhile, in Puducherry, the AINRC-led NDA is predicted to trump the Congress.

The NDTV poll of exit polls is an aggregate of multiple exit polls.

The assembly elections were held from 27 March in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry. Bengal’s record eight-phase polls ended Thursday.

The results of the four states and one UT will be announced Sunday.

Also read: BJP, EC have ‘blood of Covid patients on their hands’, says Trinamool Congress

West Bengal

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is predicted to win 149 seats in the West Bengal polls while the BJP is predicted to win 116 seats in the 294-member assembly, according to the NDTV’s poll of exit polls.

The Axis-India Today poll predicted 134-160 seats for the BJP and 130-156 for the TMC.

All exit polls have predicted huge gains for the BJP as well — CNX-Republic being the only poll that has predicted a BJP+ win: 143 seats against 133 for TMC.

In the 2016 assembly elections, the BJP had won just three seats in the state. In the last five years, the BJP has invested a lot of human resource and money into the state — with constant visits, rallies and road shows.

The party was criticised for continuing to hold rallies in the state even amid the Covid surge in April. But if the exit polls prove true, it would mean the BJP has made significant inroads into the state’s electoral politics.

Meanwhile, the Congress-Left-Indian Secular Front (ISF) tie-up is expected to get 14-25 seats in Bengal, Times Now-CVoter exit poll has predicted.


Exit polls have signaled a return of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led LDF in Kerala. This would mean that the results might defy the four-decade old tradition of alternating LDF and United Democratic Front (UDF) governments in the state.

According to the NDTV poll of exit polls, LDF will easily cross the halfway mark of 71 in the 140-member assembly by winning 87 seats, while the Congress-led UDF will win only 51.

The India Today-Axis My India poll has given the LDF a sweeping victory — predicting it will win 104-120 seats. The Congress-UDF might bag only 20-36 seats and the BJP-led NDA would win 0-2 seats, according to the Axis poll.

While CM Pinarayi Vijayan, Health Minister K.K. Shailaja and Education Minister K.K. Jaleel were some of the prominent names from the LDF government in the election, the Congress had its former party president Rahul Gandhi actively campaigning in the state.

Gandhi, who is an MP from Kerala’s Wayanad spent time extensively campaigning in various constituencies of the state.

Also read: Murshidabad is rare Bengal pocket where CPM-Congress alliance is still a force to reckon with


The BJP and its allies are expected to retain power in Assam, with the NDTV exit poll predicting the NDA winning 69 of 126 seats in the assembly. The Congress is seen to be winning 54 seats.

The Congress pitched its campaign on the Citizenship Amendment Act-National Register of Citizens, with its leader Rahul Gandhi promising that CAA will not be implemented in the state if the Congress comes to power.

Assam saw huge anti-CAA protests in December 2019, but if the exit polls turn out correct — it would mean that the anti-CAA sentiment was not enough for the Congress to ride to power in the state.

While Today’s Chanakya gave the BJP and its allies 61-79 seats, the Republic-CNX predicted that the alliance could win anywhere between 74-84 seats. This would mean the BJP will get a second straight term in the state.

Tamil Nadu

For Tamil Nadu, the exit polls predict a sweep for the opposition DMK and its ally Congress — they are likely to win 173 of 234 assembly seats, according to the NDTV poll of exit polls.

The ruling AIADMK- BJP alliance will finish a distant second winning just 58 seats, according to the exit poll.

While the Republic-CNX exit poll predicts 165 seats for DMK+ and 62 for AIADMK+, Today’s Chanakya is predicting 175 ± 11 seats for the DMK and 57 ± 11 seats for the AIADMK.

If the exit polls prove true, it would be a huge loss for the AIADMK-led alliance, fighting its first election since the death of its leader J. Jayalalithaa in 2016.


Puducherry’s Congress government fell in February, just weeks before the elections as the party kept losing its MLAs to the BJP.

The NDTV poll of polls predicted that the AINRC alliance would win 18 seats in the 30-member assembly. If the predictions prove accurate, this would mean that the BJP’s play proved successful in the union territory.

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll for the Puducherry Assembly election, the AINRC-led NDA is projected to win 20-24 seats while Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is projected to win 6-10 seats.

Also read: Drugs & hilsa in Bengal, liquor in Assam, cash in TN — What parties used to influence voters


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