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Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: Stalin’s DMK Likely To Sweep Election With Clear Majority


Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: The Tamil Nadu assembly elections witnessed a massive tussle mainly between the ruling AIADMK and MK Stalin-led DMK. The AIADMK is contesting this election in alliance with the BJP while the DMK has partnered with Congress. Tamil Nadu witnessed single-phase polling on April 6th amid the rising Covid cases and the state registered a huge voter turnout of  72.78%. 

While, the results for the 234-member Tamil Nadu legislative assembly will be announced on May 2nd, ABP News along with CVoter conducted an Exit poll to understand the mood of the state.

After polling, the data received shows a Stalin-led DMK emerging victorious with a clear majority bagging the seats in the range of 160-172. The incumbent AIADMK- led alliance is expected to be restricted to 58 to 70 seats in the state. In 2016 Assembly elections, AIADMK – led alliance had emerged victorious on 134 seats and DMK –led coalition managed to corner 98 seats. 

The magic figure is 118, the minimum seats required for a party or a coalition to stake claim for the government formation.

PARTY-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS
Alliance Seats: Tamil Nadu From To Seats
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) 160 to 172
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) 58 to 70
MNM 0 to 2
AMMK 0 to 2
Others 0 to 3
Total 234

 

REGION-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS
REGIONS AIADMK+ DMK+ AMMK
Range of seats From To From To From To
Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin 7 9 32 34 0 1
Greater Chennai Region 3 5 11 13 0 0
Kongu Nadu in West 17 19 33 35 0 0
Pallava Nadu in North 8 10 36 38 0 1
Pandiya Nadu in South 21 23 33 35 0 2
Puddichery Region 2 4 15 17 0 0
Grand Total 58 70 160 172 0 4

Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll: Vote share predictions

Translated to vote share, the ABP-CVoter Exit Polls has revealed that Stalin’s DMK is the first choice for people in Tamil Nadu. According to the survey data, the vote share of DMK and alliance partners will witness a jump of 7.9% from 38.8% in 2016 to 46.7% in 2021, while the vote share of AIADMK – led coalition will plummet by 8.7% from 43.7% in 2016 to 35% in 2021. Other outfits will continue to remain marginal political players in the state

PARTY-WISE VOTE SHARE
Party Alliance  2016 Results 2021 Projection Swing
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) 38.8 46.7 7.9
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) 43.7 35 -8.7
MNM 0 4.1 4.1
AMMK 0 3.8 3.8
Others 17.5 14.5 -3
Total 100 100 0

 

REGIONS AIADMK+ DMK+ AMMK OTH Total
Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin 33.1 51.8 4.3 10.08 100
Greater Chennai Region 34.7 40.6 3.8 20.9 100
Kongu Nadu in West 38.6 43.9 3.2 14.3 100
Pallava Nadu in North 31.5 51.6 2.7 14.2 100
Pandiya Nadu in South 39 40.4 4.6 15.7 100
Puddichery Region 27.9 50.8 4.3 17 100
Grand Total 35 46.7 3.8 14.5 0

 

REGION-WISE VOTE SWING: 2021

SWING AIADMK+ DMK+ AMMK OTH Total
Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin -11.6 12.1 4.3 -4.8 0
Greater Chennai Region -10.9 -1.2 3.8 8.3 0
Kongu Nadu in West -8.2 7 3.2 -2 0
Pallava Nadu in North -8.7 12.4 2.7 -6.4 0
Pandiya Nadu in South -6.9 1.2 4.6 1.1 0
Puddichery Region -7.4 14.1 4.3 -11 0
Grand Total -8.7 7.9 3.8 -3 0

This election is an important one for Tamil Nadu as this is the first assembly poll to happen without the towering presence of titans M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa. The results this time around will reveal if AIADMK can stand on its own in the absence of “Amma” and whether Karunanidhi’s son Stalin has been able to inherit the wide following of his father.

(The present opinion poll / survey was conducted by C Voter Services Pvt. Ltd. The methodology used is Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews [CATI] for Opinion Polls and Face to face methodology for Exit Poll and the sample size for the same is 2,30,500 (sum of all opinion and exit polls in all states); the survey was carried out during the period January 1, 2021, until the end of elections in the five states. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of +/-3% at Macro level and +/-5% at Micro Level and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria / aspects and was broadly based upon answers provided by the respondents during the interviews.)

 



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